Ukraine - Market ChallengesUkraine - Market Challenges
With growth potential of four to five percent per year, many market watchers agree that Ukraine could and should be the next Poland if it were to capitalize on its enormous economic potential in agribusiness, information technology, trade-related transportation, aerospace, and defense. These same analysts agree, however, that despite recent progress under enormously challenging circumstances (conflict, annexation, foreign intervention, and trade blockades), economic growth is most constrained by corruption.
While the government took several initial steps in 2015 toward tackling Ukraine’s endemic corruption, reform will be a long and painful process. Progress is largely stalled by oligarchs and the politicians they promote, who continue to stymie the efforts of dedicated and motivated reform technocrats. One example of this is a lack of prosecutions related to corruption, and another is a failure to privatize state-owned enterprises indirectly controlled and fleeced by oligarchic business interests. Partially due to insufficient reforms and a high-risk business environment, Ukraine is rated Caa1/B-/B- by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch respectively, lower than emerging markets in Latin America and above those in Africa.
In addition to corruption, other significant market challenges in Ukraine include:
- A lack of transparency within tax and customs institutions
- Harassment by tax and customs officials
- A dysfunctional court system, unable to fairly adjudicate business disputes
- Limited financing resources
- High tax rates
- Opaque and costly regulatory environment
- Inadequate protection of intellectual property rights
- A moratorium on agricultural land sales that dampens lease rates and prevents investment